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CF Pachuca vs Monarcas — Liga MX 2018

CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Monarcas
Monarcas
8/4/2019Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 3Estadio Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

CF Pachuca48%
×Draw24%
Monarcas28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Pachuca
1.67
Monarcas
1.21

CF Pachuca creates 38% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 33 away

creates per match

CF Pachuca
1.67
Monarcas
1.39

allows per match

CF Pachuca
1.04
Monarcas
1.67

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par
Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Monarcas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw
72%
CF Pachuca or Monarcas
76%
Draw or Monarcas
52%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+
25%
Monarcas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals
81%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
50%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
23%
Monarcas 1+ goals
70%
Monarcas 2+ goals
34%
Monarcas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
63%
Monarcas (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.04 · 150 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.67 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.67 + Monarcas defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Monarcas attack 1.39 + CF Pachuca defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CF Pachuca scores more
48%
level
24%
Monarcas scores more
28%

CF Pachuca at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CF Pachuca vs Monarcas

Monarcas beat CF Pachuca 2-1 in Liga MX on August 4, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Hidalgo in Pachuca de Soto.