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CF Pachuca vs Lobos Buap — Liga MX 2018

CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lobos Buap
Lobos Buap
8/19/2018Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 5Estadio Miguel Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

CF Pachuca58%
×Draw23%
Lobos Buap20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Pachuca
1.83
Lobos Buap
0.96

CF Pachuca creates 91% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 17 away

creates per match

CF Pachuca
1.67
Lobos Buap
0.88

allows per match

CF Pachuca
1.04
Lobos Buap
2.00

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par
Lobos Buap+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Lobos Buap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw
80%
CF Pachuca or Lobos Buap
77%
Draw or Lobos Buap
42%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+
33%
Lobos Buap wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals
84%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
54%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
28%
Lobos Buap 1+ goals
62%
Lobos Buap 2+ goals
25%
Lobos Buap 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
75%
Lobos Buap (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.04 · 150 matches

Lobos Buap away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.67 + Lobos Buap defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Lobos Buap attack 0.88 + CF Pachuca defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

CF Pachuca scores more
58%
level
23%
Lobos Buap scores more
20%

CF Pachuca at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CF Pachuca vs Lobos Buap

CF Pachuca beat Lobos Buap 3-0 in Liga MX on August 19, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo in Pachuca de Soto.