CF Pachuca 1–1 Club Queretaro: Result & Stats

CF Pachuca

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Club Queretaro

S. Aguayo 90+7'

A. Preciado 40'

8/31/2024

Liga MX · Apertura - 6Estadio Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

CF Pachuca54%

×Draw24%

Club Queretaro22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF PachucaExpected goals in this matchClub Queretaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.97

CF Pachuca

1.67

Club Queretaro

0.97

CF Pachuca creates 72% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 85 away

1.65

creates per match

0.86

1.07

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

CF Pachuca

1.65

Club Queretaro

0.86

allows per match

CF Pachuca

1.07

Club Queretaro

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Club Queretaro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Club Queretaro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw

78%

CF Pachuca or Club Queretaro

76%

Draw or Club Queretaro

46%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

29%

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

81%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

50%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

23%

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

62%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

25%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

71%

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.07 · 97 matches

Club Queretaro away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.69 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.65 + Club Queretaro defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.67

Club Queretaro attack 0.86 + CF Pachuca defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

CF Pachuca scores more

54%

level

24%

Club Queretaro scores more

22%

CF Pachuca at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

N. Deossa

CF Pachuca · M

7.9

Match Events

24'

Martín Rio

34'

Ayrton Preciado

40'

A. Preciado↳ P. Ortíz

46'

Ayrton Preciado

46'

Ayrton Preciado

46'

S. Hernández← A. González

46'

G. Álvarez← Á. Mena

55'

Borja BastónMissed penalty

60'

S. Sosa← R. Rubín

60'

A. Medina← L. Rodríguez

60'

K. Escamilla← M. Río

63'

S. Aguayo← A. Aceves

66'

Sergio Aguayo

71'

A. Bautista← C. Sánchez

71'

O. González← O. Idrissi

73'

74'

77'

84'

90+1'

90+7'

S. Aguayo↳ O. González

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CFClub

Overview

69%Possession31%

23Total Shots5

10Corners1

15Fouls20

Shots

23Total Shots5

6On Target1

15Off Target2

2Blocked2

12Inside Box3

11Outside Box2

Passing

69%Possession31%

459Total Passes207

381Accurate Passes129

83%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls20

2Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1