CF Pachuca 1–1 Club Queretaro: Result & Stats

CF Pachuca

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Club Queretaro

2/29/2020

Liga MX · Clausura - 8Estadio Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

CF Pachuca55%

×Draw24%

Club Queretaro21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF PachucaExpected goals in this matchClub Queretaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.98

CF Pachuca

1.72

Club Queretaro

0.98

CF Pachuca creates 76% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 137 away

1.67

creates per match

0.91

1.04

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

CF Pachuca

1.67

Club Queretaro

0.91

allows per match

CF Pachuca

1.04

Club Queretaro

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Club Queretaro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Club Queretaro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw

79%

CF Pachuca or Club Queretaro

76%

Draw or Club Queretaro

45%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

30%

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

82%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

51%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

25%

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

62%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

26%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

72%

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.04 · 150 matches

Club Queretaro away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.77 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.67 + Club Queretaro defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.72

Club Queretaro attack 0.91 + CF Pachuca defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

CF Pachuca scores more

55%

level

24%

Club Queretaro scores more

21%

CF Pachuca at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff