CF Os Belenenses 0–0 Varzim: Result & Stats

CF Os Belenenses

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Varzim

3/1/2025

Liga 3 · Promotion Group - 4Estádio do Restelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

CF Os Belenenses48%

×Draw27%

Varzim25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF Os BelenensesExpected goals in this matchVarzim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.90

CF Os Belenenses

1.38

Varzim

0.90

CF Os Belenenses creates 53% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 62 away

1.52

creates per match

0.92

0.87

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

CF Os Belenenses

1.52

Varzim

0.92

allows per match

CF Os Belenenses

0.87

Varzim

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Os Belenenses+0.00on par

Varzim+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Os Belenenses ↓

Varzim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

CF Os Belenenses or draw

75%

CF Os Belenenses or Varzim

73%

Draw or Varzim

52%

Winning margin

CF Os Belenenses wins by 2+

23%

Varzim wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

CF Os Belenenses 1+ goals

75%

CF Os Belenenses 2+ goals

40%

CF Os Belenenses 3+ goals

16%

Varzim 1+ goals

59%

Varzim 2+ goals

23%

Varzim 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

CF Os Belenenses (draw refunded)

66%

Varzim (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Os Belenenses at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.87 · 46 matches

Varzim away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Os Belenenses attack 1.52 + Varzim defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.38

Varzim attack 0.92 + CF Os Belenenses defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CF Os Belenenses scores more

48%

level

27%

Varzim scores more

25%

CF Os Belenenses at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CF Os Belenenses will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

15'

20'

27'

27'

57'

Xavi Fernandes← Diogo Leitão

61'

X. Fernandes

62'

Cláudio Araújo← Fábio Pacheco

62'

Diogo Sequeira← M. Moshood

72'

Ze Oliveira

74'

João Tavares← Cuca

74'

José Varela← H. Ondoa

80'

Nuno Pereira← A. Gomes

80'

Pedro Nuno← Chicão

83'

Rúben Ribeiro← Ivanildo Nhaga

85'

Gonçalo Maria← Evandro Barros

85'

C. Triana← Tiago Morgado

CF

Varzim

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: José Sousa

57'▲Xavi Fernandes←▼Diogo Leitão

74'▲João Tavares←▼Cuca

74'▲José Varela←▼H. Ondoa

85'▲Gonçalo Maria←▼Evandro Barros

85'▲C. Triana←▼Tiago Morgado

CF Os Belenenses substitutes

FernandesTavaresVarelaMariaTriana

Manager: Vítor Paneira

62'▲Cláudio Araújo←▼Fábio Pacheco

62'▲Diogo Sequeira←▼M. Moshood

80'▲Nuno Pereira←▼A. Gomes

80'▲Pedro Nuno←▼Chicão

83'▲Rúben Ribeiro←▼Ivanildo Nhaga

Varzim substitutes

AraújoSequeiraPereiraNunoRibeiro