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CF Os Belenenses vs União de Leiria — Segunda Liga 2018

CF Os Belenenses
CF Os Belenenses
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
União de Leiria
União de Leiria
9/17/2023Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 5Estádio do Restelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CF Os Belenenses27%
×Draw27%
União de Leiria46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Os Belenenses
1.01
União de Leiria
1.40

União de Leiria creates 39% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 51 away

creates per match

CF Os Belenenses
0.89
União de Leiria
1.37

allows per match

CF Os Belenenses
1.42
União de Leiria
1.14

finishing

CF Os Belenenses+0.00on par
União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Os Belenenses ↓

União de Leiria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

CF Os Belenenses or draw
54%
CF Os Belenenses or União de Leiria
73%
Draw or União de Leiria
73%

Winning margin

CF Os Belenenses wins by 2+
10%
União de Leiria wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

CF Os Belenenses 1+ goals
64%
CF Os Belenenses 2+ goals
27%
CF Os Belenenses 3+ goals
8%
União de Leiria 1+ goals
75%
União de Leiria 2+ goals
41%
União de Leiria 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

CF Os Belenenses (draw refunded)
37%
União de Leiria (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Os Belenenses at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Os Belenenses attack 0.89 + União de Leiria defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

União de Leiria attack 1.37 + CF Os Belenenses defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

CF Os Belenenses scores more
27%
level
27%
União de Leiria scores more
46%

União de Leiria at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: CF Os Belenenses 0–5 União de Leiria

União de Leiria beat CF Os Belenenses 5-0 in Segunda Liga on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio do Restelo in Lisboa.