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CF Os Belenenses vs Trofense — Taça de Portugal 2018

CF Os Belenenses
CF Os Belenenses
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Trofense
Trofense
9/22/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio do Restelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CF Os Belenenses43%
×Draw25%
Trofense32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Os Belenenses
1.55
Trofense
1.29

CF Os Belenenses creates 20% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

CF Os Belenenses
1.43
Trofense
1.00

allows per match

CF Os Belenenses
1.57
Trofense
1.67

finishing

CF Os Belenenses+0.00on par
Trofense+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Os Belenenses ↓

Trofense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

CF Os Belenenses or draw
68%
CF Os Belenenses or Trofense
75%
Draw or Trofense
57%

Winning margin

CF Os Belenenses wins by 2+
22%
Trofense wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

CF Os Belenenses 1+ goals
79%
CF Os Belenenses 2+ goals
46%
CF Os Belenenses 3+ goals
20%
Trofense 1+ goals
72%
Trofense 2+ goals
37%
Trofense 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

CF Os Belenenses (draw refunded)
58%
Trofense (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Os Belenenses at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Trofense away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Os Belenenses attack 1.43 + Trofense defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.55

Trofense attack 1.00 + CF Os Belenenses defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CF Os Belenenses scores more
43%
level
25%
Trofense scores more
32%

CF Os Belenenses at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CF Os Belenenses will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CF Os Belenenses vs Trofense

CF Os Belenenses beat Trofense 3-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio do Restelo in Lisboa.