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CF Os Belenenses vs Torreense — Segunda Liga 2018

CF Os Belenenses
CF Os Belenenses
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Torreense
Torreense
2/25/2024Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 23Estádio do Restelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CF Os Belenenses30%
×Draw28%
Torreense42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Os Belenenses
1.02
Torreense
1.28

Torreense creates 25% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 68 away

creates per match

CF Os Belenenses
0.89
Torreense
1.15

allows per match

CF Os Belenenses
1.42
Torreense
1.16

finishing

CF Os Belenenses+0.00on par
Torreense+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Os Belenenses ↓

Torreense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CF Os Belenenses or draw
58%
CF Os Belenenses or Torreense
72%
Draw or Torreense
70%

Winning margin

CF Os Belenenses wins by 2+
11%
Torreense wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

CF Os Belenenses 1+ goals
64%
CF Os Belenenses 2+ goals
27%
CF Os Belenenses 3+ goals
8%
Torreense 1+ goals
72%
Torreense 2+ goals
37%
Torreense 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

CF Os Belenenses (draw refunded)
41%
Torreense (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Os Belenenses at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Torreense away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Os Belenenses attack 0.89 + Torreense defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.02

Torreense attack 1.15 + CF Os Belenenses defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

CF Os Belenenses scores more
30%
level
28%
Torreense scores more
42%

Torreense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Torreense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CF Os Belenenses vs Torreense

Torreense beat CF Os Belenenses 2-0 in Segunda Liga on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio do Restelo in Lisboa.