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CF Os Belenenses vs Nacional — Segunda Liga 2018

CF Os Belenenses
CF Os Belenenses
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Nacional
Nacional
4/28/2024Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 31Estádio do Restelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CF Os Belenenses31%
×Draw27%
Nacional41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Os Belenenses
1.10
Nacional
1.31

Nacional creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 64 away

creates per match

CF Os Belenenses
0.89
Nacional
1.20

allows per match

CF Os Belenenses
1.42
Nacional
1.31

finishing

CF Os Belenenses+0.00on par
Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Os Belenenses ↓

Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

CF Os Belenenses or draw
59%
CF Os Belenenses or Nacional
73%
Draw or Nacional
69%

Winning margin

CF Os Belenenses wins by 2+
12%
Nacional wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

CF Os Belenenses 1+ goals
67%
CF Os Belenenses 2+ goals
30%
CF Os Belenenses 3+ goals
10%
Nacional 1+ goals
73%
Nacional 2+ goals
38%
Nacional 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

CF Os Belenenses (draw refunded)
43%
Nacional (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Os Belenenses at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Nacional away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Os Belenenses attack 0.89 + Nacional defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.10

Nacional attack 1.20 + CF Os Belenenses defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

CF Os Belenenses scores more
31%
level
27%
Nacional scores more
41%

Nacional at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: CF Os Belenenses 1–3 Nacional

Nacional beat CF Os Belenenses 3-1 in Segunda Liga on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio do Restelo in Lisboa.