CF Os Belenenses 1–2 GIL Vicente: Result & Stats

CF Os Belenenses

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

GIL Vicente

10/22/2023

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio do Restelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

CF Os Belenenses23%

×Draw24%

GIL Vicente53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF Os BelenensesExpected goals in this matchGIL Vicente

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.67

CF Os Belenenses

1.02

GIL Vicente

1.67

GIL Vicente creates 64% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

1.43

creates per match

1.77

1.57

allows per match

0.62

creates per match

CF Os Belenenses

1.43

GIL Vicente

1.77

allows per match

CF Os Belenenses

1.57

GIL Vicente

0.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Os Belenenses+0.00on par

GIL Vicente+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Os Belenenses ↓

GIL Vicente →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

CF Os Belenenses or draw

47%

CF Os Belenenses or GIL Vicente

76%

Draw or GIL Vicente

77%

Winning margin

CF Os Belenenses wins by 2+

8%

GIL Vicente wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

CF Os Belenenses 1+ goals

64%

CF Os Belenenses 2+ goals

27%

CF Os Belenenses 3+ goals

8%

GIL Vicente 1+ goals

81%

GIL Vicente 2+ goals

50%

GIL Vicente 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

CF Os Belenenses (draw refunded)

31%

GIL Vicente (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Os Belenenses at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

GIL Vicente away — creates 1.77, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Os Belenenses attack 1.43 + GIL Vicente defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.02

GIL Vicente attack 1.77 + CF Os Belenenses defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

CF Os Belenenses scores more

23%

level

24%

GIL Vicente scores more

53%

GIL Vicente at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "GIL Vicente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff