CF Os Belenenses 2–1 Caldas: Result & Stats

CF Os Belenenses

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Caldas

Romário Carvalho 31'

Rodrigo Pereira 12' (pen)

Miguel Velosa 35'

8/2/2024

Liga 3 · Round 1Estádio do Restelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

CF Os Belenenses48%

×Draw26%

Caldas26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF Os BelenensesExpected goals in this matchCaldas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.01

CF Os Belenenses

1.48

Caldas

1.01

CF Os Belenenses creates 47% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 70 away

1.52

creates per match

1.16

0.87

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

CF Os Belenenses

1.52

Caldas

1.16

allows per match

CF Os Belenenses

0.87

Caldas

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Os Belenenses+0.00on par

Caldas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Os Belenenses ↓

Caldas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

CF Os Belenenses or draw

74%

CF Os Belenenses or Caldas

74%

Draw or Caldas

52%

Winning margin

CF Os Belenenses wins by 2+

24%

Caldas wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

CF Os Belenenses 1+ goals

77%

CF Os Belenenses 2+ goals

43%

CF Os Belenenses 3+ goals

19%

Caldas 1+ goals

64%

Caldas 2+ goals

27%

Caldas 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

CF Os Belenenses (draw refunded)

65%

Caldas (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Os Belenenses at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.87 · 46 matches

Caldas away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Os Belenenses attack 1.52 + Caldas defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.48

Caldas attack 1.16 + CF Os Belenenses defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CF Os Belenenses scores more

48%

level

26%

Caldas scores more

26%

CF Os Belenenses at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CF Os Belenenses will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Rodrigo PereiraPenalty

17'

31'

34'

35'

37'

48'

60'

Tiago Morgado← Xavi Fernandes

60'

José Varela← Diogo Leitão

60'

H. Ondoa← Midana Sambú

60'

Rafael Pinto← David Santos

67'

H. O. Ekanga Ondoa

69'

Eba Viegas← Júlio Sousa

70'

Luís Farinha← Nuno Januário

81'

Gonçalo Barreiras← Diogo Clemente

81'

David Lopes← Y. Calle

85'

E. Viegas

89'

C. Triana← Rodrigo Pereira

90+4'

João Machado← Diogo Brasido

CF

Caldas

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Pereira

Manager: José Sousa

60'▲Tiago Morgado←▼Xavi Fernandes

60'▲José Varela←▼Diogo Leitão

60'▲H. Ondoa←▼Midana Sambú

89'▲C. Triana←▼Rodrigo Pereira

90+4'▲João Machado←▼Diogo Brasido

CF Os Belenenses substitutes

MorgadoVarelaOndoaTrianaMachado

Manager: José Vala

60'▲Rafael Pinto←▼David Santos

69'▲Eba Viegas←▼Júlio Sousa

70'▲Luís Farinha←▼Nuno Januário

81'▲Gonçalo Barreiras←▼Diogo Clemente

81'▲David Lopes←▼Y. Calle

Caldas substitutes

PintoViegasFarinhaBarreirasLopes

Match Recap: CF Os Belenenses vs Caldas

CF Os Belenenses beat Caldas 2-1 in Liga 3 on August 2, 2024.

Goals: Rodrigo Pereira (12' pen), Romário Carvalho (31'), Miguel Velosa (35').

The match was played at Estádio do Restelo in Lisboa.

CF Os Belenenses vs Caldas — Liga 3 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: CF Os Belenenses vs Caldas