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CF Os Belenenses vs AVS — Segunda Liga 2018

CF Os Belenenses
CF Os Belenenses
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
AVS
AVS
1/20/2024Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 18Estádio do Restelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

CF Os Belenenses23%
×Draw25%
AVS52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Os Belenenses
0.98
AVS
1.59

AVS creates 62% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

creates per match

CF Os Belenenses
0.89
AVS
1.76

allows per match

CF Os Belenenses
1.42
AVS
1.06

finishing

CF Os Belenenses+0.00on par
AVS+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Os Belenenses ↓

AVS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CF Os Belenenses or draw
48%
CF Os Belenenses or AVS
75%
Draw or AVS
77%

Winning margin

CF Os Belenenses wins by 2+
8%
AVS wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

CF Os Belenenses 1+ goals
62%
CF Os Belenenses 2+ goals
26%
CF Os Belenenses 3+ goals
8%
AVS 1+ goals
80%
AVS 2+ goals
47%
AVS 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

CF Os Belenenses (draw refunded)
31%
AVS (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Os Belenenses at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

AVS away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Os Belenenses attack 0.89 + AVS defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98

AVS attack 1.76 + CF Os Belenenses defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

CF Os Belenenses scores more
23%
level
25%
AVS scores more
52%

AVS at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "AVS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: CF Os Belenenses 1–3 AVS

AVS beat CF Os Belenenses 3-1 in Segunda Liga on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio do Restelo in Lisboa.