CF Montreal 4–0 Philadelphia Union: Result & Stats

CF Montreal

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Philadelphia Union

7/28/2019

Major League Soccer · Round 27Saputo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

CF Montreal34%

×Draw25%

Philadelphia Union41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF MontrealExpected goals in this matchPhiladelphia Union

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.47

CF Montreal

1.33

Philadelphia Union

1.47

Philadelphia Union creates 11% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 17 away

1.14

creates per match

1.48

1.46

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

CF Montreal

1.14

Philadelphia Union

1.48

allows per match

CF Montreal

1.46

Philadelphia Union

1.53

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

CF Montreal-0.14scores less

Philadelphia Union+0.05on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Montreal ↓

Philadelphia Union →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

CF Montreal or draw

59%

CF Montreal or Philadelphia Union

75%

Draw or Philadelphia Union

66%

Winning margin

CF Montreal wins by 2+

15%

Philadelphia Union wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

CF Montreal 1+ goals

74%

CF Montreal 2+ goals

38%

CF Montreal 3+ goals

15%

Philadelphia Union 1+ goals

77%

Philadelphia Union 2+ goals

43%

Philadelphia Union 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

CF Montreal (draw refunded)

46%

Philadelphia Union (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Montreal at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.46 · 14 matches

Philadelphia Union away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Montreal attack 1.14 + Philadelphia Union defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Philadelphia Union attack 1.48 + CF Montreal defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

CF Montreal scores more

34%

level

25%

Philadelphia Union scores more

41%

Philadelphia Union at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Philadelphia Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff