CF Montreal 2–2 Los Angeles FC: Result & Stats

CF Montreal

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Los Angeles FC

5/24/2025

Major League Soccer · Round 15Saputo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

CF Montreal31%

×Draw25%

Los Angeles FC44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF MontrealExpected goals in this matchLos Angeles FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.52

CF Montreal

1.24

Los Angeles FC

1.52

Los Angeles FC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

1.14

creates per match

1.57

1.46

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

CF Montreal

1.14

Los Angeles FC

1.57

allows per match

CF Montreal

1.46

Los Angeles FC

1.34

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

CF Montreal-0.14scores less

Los Angeles FC+0.15scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Montreal ↓

Los Angeles FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

CF Montreal or draw

56%

CF Montreal or Los Angeles FC

75%

Draw or Los Angeles FC

69%

Winning margin

CF Montreal wins by 2+

13%

Los Angeles FC wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

CF Montreal 1+ goals

71%

CF Montreal 2+ goals

35%

CF Montreal 3+ goals

13%

Los Angeles FC 1+ goals

78%

Los Angeles FC 2+ goals

45%

Los Angeles FC 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

CF Montreal (draw refunded)

42%

Los Angeles FC (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Montreal at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.46 · 14 matches

Los Angeles FC away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.34 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Montreal attack 1.14 + Los Angeles FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.24

Los Angeles FC attack 1.57 + CF Montreal defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CF Montreal scores more

31%

level

25%

Los Angeles FC scores more

44%

Los Angeles FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Los Angeles FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff