CF Montreal 2–0 Forge: Result & Stats

CF Montreal

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Forge

5/24/2023

Canadian Championship · Semi-finalsStade Saputo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

CF Montreal69%

×Draw20%

Forge11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF MontrealExpected goals in this matchForge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.63

CF Montreal

1.96

Forge

0.63

CF Montreal creates 211% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

1.92

creates per match

0.75

0.50

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

CF Montreal

1.92

Forge

0.75

allows per match

CF Montreal

0.50

Forge

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Montreal+0.00on par

Forge+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Montreal ↓

Forge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

CF Montreal or draw

89%

CF Montreal or Forge

80%

Draw or Forge

31%

Winning margin

CF Montreal wins by 2+

43%

Forge wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

CF Montreal 1+ goals

86%

CF Montreal 2+ goals

58%

CF Montreal 3+ goals

31%

Forge 1+ goals

47%

Forge 2+ goals

13%

Forge 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

CF Montreal (draw refunded)

86%

Forge (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Montreal at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

Forge away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Montreal attack 1.92 + Forge defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Forge attack 0.75 + CF Montreal defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

CF Montreal scores more

69%

level

20%

Forge scores more

11%

CF Montreal at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "CF Montreal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff