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CF Montreal vs CD Olimpia — CONCACAF Champions League 2018

CF Montreal
CF Montreal
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CD Olimpia
CD Olimpiaadvanced
12/16/2020CONCACAF Champions LeagueCONCACAF Champions League · Quarter-finalsExploria Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

CF Montreal49%
×Draw30%
CD Olimpia21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Montreal
1.21
CD Olimpia
0.69

CF Montreal creates 75% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

CF Montreal
1.00
CD Olimpia
0.57

allows per match

CF Montreal
0.80
CD Olimpia
1.43

finishing

CF Montreal+0.00on par
CD Olimpia+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Montreal ↓

CD Olimpia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

CF Montreal or draw
79%
CF Montreal or CD Olimpia
70%
Draw or CD Olimpia
51%

Winning margin

CF Montreal wins by 2+
22%
CD Olimpia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CF Montreal 1+ goals
70%
CF Montreal 2+ goals
34%
CF Montreal 3+ goals
12%
CD Olimpia 1+ goals
50%
CD Olimpia 2+ goals
15%
CD Olimpia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

CF Montreal (draw refunded)
70%
CD Olimpia (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Montreal at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

CD Olimpia away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Montreal attack 1.00 + CD Olimpia defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

CD Olimpia attack 0.57 + CF Montreal defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

CF Montreal scores more
49%
level
30%
CD Olimpia scores more
21%

CF Montreal at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "CF Montreal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONCACAF Champions League: CF Montreal 0–1 CD Olimpia

CD Olimpia beat CF Montreal 1-0 in CONCACAF Champions League on December 16, 2020.

The match was played at Exploria Stadium in Orlando, Florida.