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CF Gandía vs Villarreal III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

CF Gandía
CF Gandía
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Villarreal III
Villarreal III
2/18/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 21Campo Municipal Rois de Corella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

CF Gandía40%
×Draw28%
Villarreal III32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Gandía
1.24
Villarreal III
1.08

CF Gandía creates 15% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 112 away

creates per match

CF Gandía
1.25
Villarreal III
1.38

allows per match

CF Gandía
0.78
Villarreal III
1.23

finishing

CF Gandía+0.00on par
Villarreal III+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Gandía ↓

Villarreal III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CF Gandía or draw
68%
CF Gandía or Villarreal III
72%
Draw or Villarreal III
60%

Winning margin

CF Gandía wins by 2+
17%
Villarreal III wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

CF Gandía 1+ goals
71%
CF Gandía 2+ goals
35%
CF Gandía 3+ goals
13%
Villarreal III 1+ goals
66%
Villarreal III 2+ goals
29%
Villarreal III 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

CF Gandía (draw refunded)
55%
Villarreal III (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Gandía at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.78 · 32 matches

Villarreal III away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Gandía attack 1.25 + Villarreal III defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.24

Villarreal III attack 1.38 + CF Gandía defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

CF Gandía scores more
40%
level
28%
Villarreal III scores more
32%

CF Gandía at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CF Gandía will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: CF Gandía 1–0 Villarreal III

CF Gandía beat Villarreal III 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Rois de Corella in Gandia.