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CF Gandía vs Acero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

CF Gandía
CF Gandía
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Acero
Acero
4/1/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 27Estadio Guillermo Olagüe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

CF Gandía48%
×Draw29%
Acero23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Gandía
1.27
Acero
0.77

CF Gandía creates 65% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 77 away

creates per match

CF Gandía
1.25
Acero
0.75

allows per match

CF Gandía
0.78
Acero
1.29

finishing

CF Gandía+0.00on par
Acero+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Gandía ↓

Acero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

CF Gandía or draw
77%
CF Gandía or Acero
71%
Draw or Acero
52%

Winning margin

CF Gandía wins by 2+
22%
Acero wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CF Gandía 1+ goals
72%
CF Gandía 2+ goals
36%
CF Gandía 3+ goals
14%
Acero 1+ goals
54%
Acero 2+ goals
18%
Acero 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CF Gandía (draw refunded)
68%
Acero (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Gandía at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.78 · 32 matches

Acero away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.29 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Gandía attack 1.25 + Acero defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Acero attack 0.75 + CF Gandía defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CF Gandía scores more
48%
level
29%
Acero scores more
23%

CF Gandía at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CF Gandía will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: CF Gandía 0–0 Acero

CF Gandía and Acero drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Olagüe in Gandía.