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Ceuta vs Sevilla III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Ceuta
Ceuta
CANC
00:00
Sevilla III
Sevilla III
3/14/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 30Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ceuta59%
×Draw23%
Sevilla III18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceuta
1.79
Sevilla III
0.86

Ceuta creates 108% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 111 away

creates per match

Ceuta
2.40
Sevilla III
0.85

allows per match

Ceuta
0.87
Sevilla III
1.18

finishing

Ceuta+0.00on par
Sevilla III+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceuta ↓

Sevilla III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ceuta or draw
82%
Ceuta or Sevilla III
77%
Draw or Sevilla III
41%

Winning margin

Ceuta wins by 2+
34%
Sevilla III wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ceuta 1+ goals
83%
Ceuta 2+ goals
53%
Ceuta 3+ goals
26%
Sevilla III 1+ goals
58%
Sevilla III 2+ goals
21%
Sevilla III 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ceuta (draw refunded)
77%
Sevilla III (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceuta at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Sevilla III away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.18 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceuta attack 2.40 + Sevilla III defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.79

Sevilla III attack 0.85 + Ceuta defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ceuta scores more
59%
level
23%
Sevilla III scores more
18%

Ceuta at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ceuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ceuta host Sevilla III

March 14, 2020: Ceuta take on Sevilla III in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ceuta host Sevilla III at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.