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Ceuta vs San Roque Lepe — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Ceuta
Ceuta
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
San Roque Lepe
San Roque Lepe
1/18/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 21Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ceuta59%
×Draw23%
San Roque Lepe19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceuta
1.84
San Roque Lepe
0.92

Ceuta creates 100% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 61 away

creates per match

Ceuta
2.40
San Roque Lepe
0.97

allows per match

Ceuta
0.87
San Roque Lepe
1.28

finishing

Ceuta+0.00on par
San Roque Lepe+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceuta ↓

San Roque Lepe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ceuta or draw
81%
Ceuta or San Roque Lepe
77%
Draw or San Roque Lepe
41%

Winning margin

Ceuta wins by 2+
34%
San Roque Lepe wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ceuta 1+ goals
84%
Ceuta 2+ goals
55%
Ceuta 3+ goals
28%
San Roque Lepe 1+ goals
60%
San Roque Lepe 2+ goals
23%
San Roque Lepe 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ceuta (draw refunded)
76%
San Roque Lepe (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceuta at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

San Roque Lepe away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.28 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceuta attack 2.40 + San Roque Lepe defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.84

San Roque Lepe attack 0.97 + Ceuta defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ceuta scores more
59%
level
23%
San Roque Lepe scores more
19%

Ceuta at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ceuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Ceuta 0–2 San Roque Lepe

San Roque Lepe beat Ceuta 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on January 18, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube in Ceuta.