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Ceuta vs Conil — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Ceuta
Ceuta
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Conil
Conil
10/27/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 10Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ceuta64%
×Draw21%
Conil15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceuta
2.00
Conil
0.84

Ceuta creates 138% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 111 away

creates per match

Ceuta
2.40
Conil
0.81

allows per match

Ceuta
0.87
Conil
1.60

finishing

Ceuta+0.00on par
Conil+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceuta ↓

Conil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ceuta or draw
85%
Ceuta or Conil
79%
Draw or Conil
36%

Winning margin

Ceuta wins by 2+
40%
Conil wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ceuta 1+ goals
86%
Ceuta 2+ goals
59%
Ceuta 3+ goals
32%
Conil 1+ goals
57%
Conil 2+ goals
21%
Conil 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ceuta (draw refunded)
81%
Conil (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceuta at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Conil away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.60 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceuta attack 2.40 + Conil defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.00

Conil attack 0.81 + Ceuta defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Ceuta scores more
64%
level
21%
Conil scores more
15%

Ceuta at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Ceuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ceuta vs Conil

Ceuta beat Conil 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube in Ceuta.