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Ceuta vs Antoniano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Ceuta
Ceuta
CANC
00:00
Antoniano
Antoniano
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 34Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ceuta55%
×Draw24%
Antoniano21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceuta
1.72
Antoniano
0.95

Ceuta creates 81% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 57 away

creates per match

Ceuta
2.40
Antoniano
1.02

allows per match

Ceuta
0.87
Antoniano
1.04

finishing

Ceuta+0.00on par
Antoniano+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceuta ↓

Antoniano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ceuta or draw
79%
Ceuta or Antoniano
76%
Draw or Antoniano
45%

Winning margin

Ceuta wins by 2+
31%
Antoniano wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ceuta 1+ goals
82%
Ceuta 2+ goals
51%
Ceuta 3+ goals
25%
Antoniano 1+ goals
61%
Antoniano 2+ goals
25%
Antoniano 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ceuta (draw refunded)
73%
Antoniano (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceuta at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Antoniano away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.04 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceuta attack 2.40 + Antoniano defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.72

Antoniano attack 1.02 + Ceuta defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ceuta scores more
55%
level
24%
Antoniano scores more
21%

Ceuta at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ceuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ceuta vs Antoniano — Match Preview

Ceuta face Antoniano on April 19, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ceuta host Antoniano at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.