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Ceuta II vs San Roque Lepe — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Ceuta II
Ceuta II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
San Roque Lepe
San Roque Lepe
3/1/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 24Estadio José Martínez Pirri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Ceuta II48%
×Draw28%
San Roque Lepe24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceuta II
1.31
San Roque Lepe
0.83

Ceuta II creates 58% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 61 away

creates per match

Ceuta II
1.35
San Roque Lepe
0.97

allows per match

Ceuta II
0.70
San Roque Lepe
1.28

finishing

Ceuta II+0.00on par
San Roque Lepe+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceuta II ↓

San Roque Lepe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ceuta II or draw
76%
Ceuta II or San Roque Lepe
72%
Draw or San Roque Lepe
52%

Winning margin

Ceuta II wins by 2+
22%
San Roque Lepe wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ceuta II 1+ goals
73%
Ceuta II 2+ goals
38%
Ceuta II 3+ goals
14%
San Roque Lepe 1+ goals
56%
San Roque Lepe 2+ goals
20%
San Roque Lepe 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ceuta II (draw refunded)
67%
San Roque Lepe (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceuta II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.70 · 83 matches

San Roque Lepe away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.28 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceuta II attack 1.35 + San Roque Lepe defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

San Roque Lepe attack 0.97 + Ceuta II defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ceuta II scores more
48%
level
28%
San Roque Lepe scores more
24%

Ceuta II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ceuta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ceuta II 2 – 3 San Roque Lepe

San Roque Lepe beat Ceuta II 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio José Martínez Pirri in Ceuta.