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Ceuta II vs Rota — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Ceuta II
Ceuta II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Rota
Rota
2/12/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 24Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Ceuta II60%
×Draw25%
Rota16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceuta II
1.62
Rota
0.69

Ceuta II creates 135% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 57 away

creates per match

Ceuta II
1.35
Rota
0.67

allows per match

Ceuta II
0.70
Rota
1.89

finishing

Ceuta II+0.00on par
Rota+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceuta II ↓

Rota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ceuta II or draw
84%
Ceuta II or Rota
75%
Draw or Rota
40%

Winning margin

Ceuta II wins by 2+
33%
Rota wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ceuta II 1+ goals
80%
Ceuta II 2+ goals
48%
Ceuta II 3+ goals
22%
Rota 1+ goals
50%
Rota 2+ goals
15%
Rota 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ceuta II (draw refunded)
79%
Rota (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceuta II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.70 · 83 matches

Rota away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.89 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceuta II attack 1.35 + Rota defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.62

Rota attack 0.67 + Ceuta II defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ceuta II scores more
60%
level
25%
Rota scores more
16%

Ceuta II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ceuta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ceuta II 2 – 2 Rota

Ceuta II and Rota drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 12, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube in Ceuta.