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Ceuta II vs Los Barrios — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Ceuta II
Ceuta II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Los Barrios
Los Barrios
12/4/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 14Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Ceuta II58%
×Draw24%
Los Barrios18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceuta II
1.68
Los Barrios
0.80

Ceuta II creates 110% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 42 away

creates per match

Ceuta II
1.35
Los Barrios
0.90

allows per match

Ceuta II
0.70
Los Barrios
2.00

finishing

Ceuta II+0.00on par
Los Barrios+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceuta II ↓

Los Barrios →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ceuta II or draw
82%
Ceuta II or Los Barrios
76%
Draw or Los Barrios
42%

Winning margin

Ceuta II wins by 2+
32%
Los Barrios wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ceuta II 1+ goals
81%
Ceuta II 2+ goals
50%
Ceuta II 3+ goals
24%
Los Barrios 1+ goals
55%
Los Barrios 2+ goals
19%
Los Barrios 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ceuta II (draw refunded)
77%
Los Barrios (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceuta II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.70 · 83 matches

Los Barrios away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceuta II attack 1.35 + Los Barrios defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.68

Los Barrios attack 0.90 + Ceuta II defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ceuta II scores more
58%
level
24%
Los Barrios scores more
18%

Ceuta II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ceuta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ceuta II vs Los Barrios

Ceuta II beat Los Barrios 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on December 4, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube in Ceuta.