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Ceuta II vs La Palma — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Ceuta II
Ceuta II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
La Palma
La Palma
Juanpe 33', 16'
Rafa Navarro 50'
Diego Vargas 20'
11/9/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 10Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Ceuta II54%
×Draw26%
La Palma20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceuta II
1.51
La Palma
0.79

Ceuta II creates 91% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 48 away

creates per match

Ceuta II
1.35
La Palma
0.88

allows per match

Ceuta II
0.70
La Palma
1.67

finishing

Ceuta II+0.00on par
La Palma+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceuta II ↓

La Palma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ceuta II or draw
80%
Ceuta II or La Palma
74%
Draw or La Palma
46%

Winning margin

Ceuta II wins by 2+
28%
La Palma wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ceuta II 1+ goals
78%
Ceuta II 2+ goals
44%
Ceuta II 3+ goals
19%
La Palma 1+ goals
55%
La Palma 2+ goals
19%
La Palma 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ceuta II (draw refunded)
73%
La Palma (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceuta II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.70 · 83 matches

La Palma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceuta II attack 1.35 + La Palma defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.51

La Palma attack 0.88 + Ceuta II defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ceuta II scores more
54%
level
26%
La Palma scores more
20%

Ceuta II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ceuta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
Juanpe
20'
Diego Vargas
33'
Juanpe
46'
Diego Luís← Carlos Rojas
50'
Rafa Navarro
65'
Juan Martín← José Cortés
67'
Juan Barragán← Sergio Guichard
67'
Gonzalo Giménez← Arick Betancourt
68'
Manu Picón← Diego Rosado
68'
Ángel Luque← Álvaro Prieto
75'
Mohamed Kadiro← David Cobo
75'
Víctor Armenteros← Juanpe
89'
Juan Carlos Navarro← Pana
Ceuta
La
Juan Corrales
Corrales
Rafa Navarro
⚽
Navarro
Pana
▼
Pana
Andrés Pavón
Pavón
Carlos Rojas
▼
Rojas
Diego Rosado
▼
Rosado
Álvaro Fernández
Fernández
Álvaro Prieto
▼
Prieto
Moisés Aguilar
Aguilar
José Cortés
▼
Cortés
Diego Vargas
⚽
Vargas
Peri
Peri
Jalid Kerkich
Kerkich
Cheito
Cheito
Darío Lozano
Lozano
A. Bless
Bless
Arick Betancourt
▼
Betancour
M. Sissokho
Sissokho
Juanpe
⚽2
▼
Juanpe
David Cobo
▼
Cobo
Sergio Guichard
▼
Guichard
Ángel Mancheño
Mancheño
Perita
Manager: Perita
67'▲Juan Barragán←▼Sergio Guichard
67'▲Gonzalo Giménez←▼Arick Betancourt
75'▲Mohamed Kadiro←▼David Cobo
75'▲Víctor Armenteros←▼Juanpe

Ceuta II substitutes

BarragánGiménezKadiroArmenteros
Dioni Arroyo
Manager: Dioni Arroyo
46'▲Diego Luís←▼Carlos Rojas
65'▲Juan Martín←▼José Cortés
68'▲Manu Picón←▼Diego Rosado
68'▲Ángel Luque←▼Álvaro Prieto
89'▲Juan Carlos Navarro←▼Pana

La Palma substitutes

LuísMartínPicónLuqueNavarro

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Ceuta II 2–2 La Palma

Ceuta II and La Palma drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 9, 2024.

Goals: Juanpe (16', 33'), Diego Vargas (20'), Rafa Navarro (50').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube in Ceuta.