Ceuta II 2–1 Gerena: Result & Stats

Ceuta II

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Gerena

3/12/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 28Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Ceuta II46%

×Draw28%

Gerena26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ceuta IIExpected goals in this matchGerena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.91

Ceuta II

1.31

Gerena

0.91

Ceuta II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 76 away

1.35

creates per match

1.11

0.70

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Ceuta II

1.35

Gerena

1.11

allows per match

Ceuta II

0.70

Gerena

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ceuta II+0.00on par

Gerena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceuta II ↓

Gerena →

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ceuta II or draw

74%

Ceuta II or Gerena

72%

Draw or Gerena

54%

Winning margin

Ceuta II wins by 2+

21%

Gerena wins by 2+

Team goals

Ceuta II 1+ goals

73%

Ceuta II 2+ goals

38%

Ceuta II 3+ goals

14%

Gerena 1+ goals

60%

Gerena 2+ goals

23%

Gerena 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ceuta II (draw refunded)

64%

Gerena (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ceuta II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.70 · 83 matches

Gerena away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ceuta II attack 1.35 + Gerena defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Gerena attack 1.11 + Ceuta II defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ceuta II scores more

46%

level

28%

Gerena scores more

26%

Ceuta II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ceuta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff