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Cetinje vs Kom — Second League 2019

Cetinje
Cetinje
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Kom
Kom
4/9/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 27Stadion Trešnjica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cetinje28%
×Draw24%
Kom48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cetinje
1.24
Kom
1.71

Kom creates 38% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 105 away

creates per match

Cetinje
0.89
Kom
1.24

allows per match

Cetinje
2.17
Kom
1.58

finishing

Cetinje+0.00on par
Kom+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cetinje ↓

Kom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cetinje or draw
52%
Cetinje or Kom
76%
Draw or Kom
72%

Winning margin

Cetinje wins by 2+
11%
Kom wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Cetinje 1+ goals
71%
Cetinje 2+ goals
35%
Cetinje 3+ goals
13%
Kom 1+ goals
82%
Kom 2+ goals
51%
Kom 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Cetinje (draw refunded)
37%
Kom (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cetinje at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

Kom away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.58 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cetinje attack 0.89 + Kom defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.24

Kom attack 1.24 + Cetinje defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cetinje scores more
28%
level
24%
Kom scores more
48%

Kom at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cetinje 1 – 4 Kom

Kom beat Cetinje 4-1 in Second League on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Trešnjica in Golubovci.