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Cessnock City Hornets vs Wallsend Red Devils — NNSW League 1 2026

Cessnock City Hornets
Cessnock City Hornets
FT
2 – 0
Wallsend Red Devils
Wallsend Red Devils
3/16/2024NNSW League 1NNSW League 1 · Round 4Turner Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Cessnock City Hornets48%
×Draw22%
Wallsend Red Devils30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cessnock City Hornets
1.96
Wallsend Red Devils
1.52

Cessnock City Hornets creates 29% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

creates per match

Cessnock City Hornets
1.46
Wallsend Red Devils
1.32

allows per match

Cessnock City Hornets
1.71
Wallsend Red Devils
2.46

finishing

Cessnock City Hornets+0.00on par
Wallsend Red Devils+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cessnock City Hornets ↓

Wallsend Red Devils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Cessnock City Hornets or draw
70%
Cessnock City Hornets or Wallsend Red Devils
78%
Draw or Wallsend Red Devils
52%

Winning margin

Cessnock City Hornets wins by 2+
27%
Wallsend Red Devils wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cessnock City Hornets 1+ goals
86%
Cessnock City Hornets 2+ goals
58%
Cessnock City Hornets 3+ goals
31%
Wallsend Red Devils 1+ goals
78%
Wallsend Red Devils 2+ goals
45%
Wallsend Red Devils 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Cessnock City Hornets (draw refunded)
61%
Wallsend Red Devils (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cessnock City Hornets at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.71 · 28 matches

Wallsend Red Devils away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.46 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cessnock City Hornets attack 1.46 + Wallsend Red Devils defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.96

Wallsend Red Devils attack 1.32 + Cessnock City Hornets defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cessnock City Hornets scores more
48%
level
22%
Wallsend Red Devils scores more
30%

Cessnock City Hornets at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cessnock City Hornets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cessnock City Hornets vs Wallsend Red Devils

Cessnock City Hornets beat Wallsend Red Devils 2-0 in NNSW League 1 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Turner Park in Cessnock.