Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Český lev - Union Beroun vs Sokol Lom — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Český lev - Union Beroun
Český lev - Union Beroun
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sokol Lom
Sokol Lom
3/19/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 17Stadion Na Máchovně

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Český lev - Union Beroun26%
×Draw22%
Sokol Lom53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Český lev - Union Beroun
1.38
Sokol Lom
2.04

Sokol Lom creates 48% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 34 away

creates per match

Český lev - Union Beroun
1.29
Sokol Lom
2.03

allows per match

Český lev - Union Beroun
2.04
Sokol Lom
1.47

finishing

Český lev - Union Beroun+0.00on par
Sokol Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Český lev - Union Beroun ↓

Sokol Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Český lev - Union Beroun or draw
47%
Český lev - Union Beroun or Sokol Lom
78%
Draw or Sokol Lom
74%

Winning margin

Český lev - Union Beroun wins by 2+
11%
Sokol Lom wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Český lev - Union Beroun 1+ goals
75%
Český lev - Union Beroun 2+ goals
40%
Český lev - Union Beroun 3+ goals
16%
Sokol Lom 1+ goals
87%
Sokol Lom 2+ goals
60%
Sokol Lom 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Český lev - Union Beroun (draw refunded)
33%
Sokol Lom (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Český lev - Union Beroun at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

Sokol Lom away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Český lev - Union Beroun attack 1.29 + Sokol Lom defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sokol Lom attack 2.03 + Český lev - Union Beroun defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Český lev - Union Beroun scores more
26%
level
22%
Sokol Lom scores more
53%

Sokol Lom at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sokol Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Český lev - Union Beroun vs Sokol Lom

Český lev - Union Beroun beat Sokol Lom 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Na Máchovně in Beroun.