Český lev - Union Beroun vs Sokol Čížová

Český lev - Union Beroun

PST

13:30

Sokol Čížová

3/14/2020

4. liga - Divizie A · Round 17Stadion Na Máchovne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Český lev - Union Beroun40%

×Draw25%

Sokol Čížová35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Český lev - Union BerounExpected goals in this matchSokol Čížová

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.38

Český lev - Union Beroun

1.50

Sokol Čížová

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 7 away

1.29

creates per match

0.71

2.04

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Český lev - Union Beroun

1.29

Sokol Čížová

0.71

allows per match

Český lev - Union Beroun

2.04

Sokol Čížová

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Český lev - Union Beroun+0.00on par

Sokol Čížová+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Český lev - Union Beroun ↓

Sokol Čížová →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Český lev - Union Beroun or draw

65%

Český lev - Union Beroun or Sokol Čížová

75%

Draw or Sokol Čížová

60%

Winning margin

Český lev - Union Beroun wins by 2+

19%

Sokol Čížová wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Český lev - Union Beroun 1+ goals

78%

Český lev - Union Beroun 2+ goals

44%

Český lev - Union Beroun 3+ goals

19%

Sokol Čížová 1+ goals

75%

Sokol Čížová 2+ goals

40%

Sokol Čížová 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Český lev - Union Beroun (draw refunded)

54%

Sokol Čížová (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Český lev - Union Beroun at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

Sokol Čížová away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Český lev - Union Beroun attack 1.29 + Sokol Čížová defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sokol Čížová attack 0.71 + Český lev - Union Beroun defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Český lev - Union Beroun scores more

40%

level

25%

Sokol Čížová scores more

35%

Český lev - Union Beroun at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Český lev - Union Beroun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff