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Český lev - Union Beroun vs Slavoj Mýto — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Český lev - Union Beroun
Český lev - Union Beroun
CANC
15:00
Slavoj Mýto
Slavoj Mýto
4/24/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 21Stadion Na Máchovně

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Český lev - Union Beroun47%
×Draw23%
Slavoj Mýto30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Český lev - Union Beroun
1.82
Slavoj Mýto
1.43

Český lev - Union Beroun creates 27% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 22 away

creates per match

Český lev - Union Beroun
1.29
Slavoj Mýto
0.82

allows per match

Český lev - Union Beroun
2.04
Slavoj Mýto
2.36

finishing

Český lev - Union Beroun+0.00on par
Slavoj Mýto+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Český lev - Union Beroun ↓

Slavoj Mýto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Český lev - Union Beroun or draw
70%
Český lev - Union Beroun or Slavoj Mýto
77%
Draw or Slavoj Mýto
53%

Winning margin

Český lev - Union Beroun wins by 2+
25%
Slavoj Mýto wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Český lev - Union Beroun 1+ goals
84%
Český lev - Union Beroun 2+ goals
54%
Český lev - Union Beroun 3+ goals
27%
Slavoj Mýto 1+ goals
76%
Slavoj Mýto 2+ goals
42%
Slavoj Mýto 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Český lev - Union Beroun (draw refunded)
61%
Slavoj Mýto (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Český lev - Union Beroun at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

Slavoj Mýto away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Český lev - Union Beroun attack 1.29 + Slavoj Mýto defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.82

Slavoj Mýto attack 0.82 + Český lev - Union Beroun defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Český lev - Union Beroun scores more
47%
level
23%
Slavoj Mýto scores more
30%

Český lev - Union Beroun at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Český lev - Union Beroun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Český lev - Union Beroun host Slavoj Mýto

April 24, 2021: Český lev - Union Beroun take on Slavoj Mýto in 4. liga - Divizie A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Český lev - Union Beroun host Slavoj Mýto at Stadion Na Máchovně.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.