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Český lev - Union Beroun vs Hvězda Cheb — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Český lev - Union Beroun
Český lev - Union Beroun
PST
15:00
Hvězda Cheb
Hvězda Cheb
5/31/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 28Stadion Na Máchovně (Beroun)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Český lev - Union Beroun48%
×Draw21%
Hvězda Cheb30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Český lev - Union Beroun
2.04
Hvězda Cheb
1.59

Český lev - Union Beroun creates 28% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 28 away

creates per match

Český lev - Union Beroun
1.29
Hvězda Cheb
1.14

allows per match

Český lev - Union Beroun
2.04
Hvězda Cheb
2.79

finishing

Český lev - Union Beroun+0.00on par
Hvězda Cheb+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Český lev - Union Beroun ↓

Hvězda Cheb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Český lev - Union Beroun or draw
70%
Český lev - Union Beroun or Hvězda Cheb
79%
Draw or Hvězda Cheb
52%

Winning margin

Český lev - Union Beroun wins by 2+
28%
Hvězda Cheb wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Český lev - Union Beroun 1+ goals
87%
Český lev - Union Beroun 2+ goals
60%
Český lev - Union Beroun 3+ goals
33%
Hvězda Cheb 1+ goals
80%
Hvězda Cheb 2+ goals
47%
Hvězda Cheb 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Český lev - Union Beroun (draw refunded)
61%
Hvězda Cheb (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Český lev - Union Beroun at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

Hvězda Cheb away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.79 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Český lev - Union Beroun attack 1.29 + Hvězda Cheb defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.04

Hvězda Cheb attack 1.14 + Český lev - Union Beroun defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Český lev - Union Beroun scores more
48%
level
21%
Hvězda Cheb scores more
30%

Český lev - Union Beroun at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Český lev - Union Beroun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Český lev - Union Beroun host Hvězda Cheb

May 31, 2020: Český lev - Union Beroun take on Hvězda Cheb in 4. liga - Divizie A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Český lev - Union Beroun host Hvězda Cheb at Stadion Na Máchovně (Beroun).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.