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Český lev - Union Beroun vs České Budějovice II — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Český lev - Union Beroun
Český lev - Union Beroun
CANC
09:15
České Budějovice II
České Budějovice II
3/27/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 9Stadion Na Máchovně

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Český lev - Union Beroun23%
×Draw21%
České Budějovice II56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Český lev - Union Beroun
1.30
České Budějovice II
2.12

České Budějovice II creates 63% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 26 away

creates per match

Český lev - Union Beroun
1.29
České Budějovice II
2.19

allows per match

Český lev - Union Beroun
2.04
České Budějovice II
1.31

finishing

Český lev - Union Beroun+0.00on par
České Budějovice II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Český lev - Union Beroun ↓

České Budějovice II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Český lev - Union Beroun or draw
44%
Český lev - Union Beroun or České Budějovice II
79%
Draw or České Budějovice II
77%

Winning margin

Český lev - Union Beroun wins by 2+
10%
České Budějovice II wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Český lev - Union Beroun 1+ goals
73%
Český lev - Union Beroun 2+ goals
37%
Český lev - Union Beroun 3+ goals
14%
České Budějovice II 1+ goals
88%
České Budějovice II 2+ goals
62%
České Budějovice II 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Český lev - Union Beroun (draw refunded)
29%
České Budějovice II (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Český lev - Union Beroun at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

České Budějovice II away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Český lev - Union Beroun attack 1.29 + České Budějovice II defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.30

České Budějovice II attack 2.19 + Český lev - Union Beroun defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Český lev - Union Beroun scores more
23%
level
21%
České Budějovice II scores more
56%

České Budějovice II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "České Budějovice II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Český lev - Union Beroun face České Budějovice II (4. liga - Divizie A)

4. liga - Divizie A returns with Český lev - Union Beroun hosting České Budějovice II. Match starts March 27, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Český lev - Union Beroun host České Budějovice II at Stadion Na Máchovně.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.