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Český Brod vs Tatran Rakovník — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Český Brod
Český Brod
PST
15:00
Tatran Rakovník
Tatran Rakovník
5/24/20204. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Round 27Stadion Na Kutilce (Český Brod)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Český Brod74%
×Draw15%
Tatran Rakovník11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Český Brod
2.78
Tatran Rakovník
1.00

Český Brod creates 178% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 24 away

creates per match

Český Brod
2.18
Tatran Rakovník
0.75

allows per match

Český Brod
1.26
Tatran Rakovník
3.38

finishing

Český Brod+0.00on par
Tatran Rakovník+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Český Brod ↓

Tatran Rakovník →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Český Brod or draw
89%
Český Brod or Tatran Rakovník
85%
Draw or Tatran Rakovník
26%

Winning margin

Český Brod wins by 2+
53%
Tatran Rakovník wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Český Brod 1+ goals
94%
Český Brod 2+ goals
76%
Český Brod 3+ goals
51%
Tatran Rakovník 1+ goals
63%
Tatran Rakovník 2+ goals
26%
Tatran Rakovník 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Český Brod (draw refunded)
87%
Tatran Rakovník (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Český Brod at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.26 · 61 matches

Tatran Rakovník away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.38 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Český Brod attack 2.18 + Tatran Rakovník defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.78

Tatran Rakovník attack 0.75 + Český Brod defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Český Brod scores more
74%
level
15%
Tatran Rakovník scores more
11%

Český Brod at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Český Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Český Brod face Tatran Rakovník (4. liga - Divizie B)

4. liga - Divizie B returns with Český Brod hosting Tatran Rakovník. Match starts May 24, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Český Brod host Tatran Rakovník at Stadion Na Kutilce (Český Brod).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.