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České Budějovice vs SKU Amstetten — Friendlies Clubs 2026

České Budějovice
České Budějovice
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
SKU Amstetten
SKU Amstetten
1/29/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

České Budějovice38%
×Draw21%
SKU Amstetten41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

České Budějovice
1.90
SKU Amstetten
1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

České Budějovice
2.25
SKU Amstetten
1.91

allows per match

České Budějovice
2.00
SKU Amstetten
1.55

finishing

České Budějovice+0.00on par
SKU Amstetten+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice ↓

SKU Amstetten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

České Budějovice or draw
59%
České Budějovice or SKU Amstetten
79%
Draw or SKU Amstetten
62%

Winning margin

České Budějovice wins by 2+
20%
SKU Amstetten wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

České Budějovice 1+ goals
85%
České Budějovice 2+ goals
56%
České Budějovice 3+ goals
29%
SKU Amstetten 1+ goals
86%
SKU Amstetten 2+ goals
58%
SKU Amstetten 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice (draw refunded)
49%
SKU Amstetten (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice at home — creates 2.25, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

SKU Amstetten away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice attack 2.25 + SKU Amstetten defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.90

SKU Amstetten attack 1.91 + České Budějovice defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

České Budějovice scores more
38%
level
21%
SKU Amstetten scores more
41%

SKU Amstetten at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SKU Amstetten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: České Budějovice 0–4 SKU Amstetten

SKU Amstetten beat České Budějovice 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 29, 2026.