České Budějovice 1–2 Mlada Boleslav: Result & Stats

České Budějovice

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Mlada Boleslav

9/23/2023

Czech Liga · Round 9Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

České Budějovice38%

×Draw25%

Mlada Boleslav37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

České BudějoviceExpected goals in this matchMlada Boleslav

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.38

České Budějovice

1.41

Mlada Boleslav

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 120 away

1.20

creates per match

1.23

1.53

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

České Budějovice

1.20

Mlada Boleslav

1.23

allows per match

České Budějovice

1.53

Mlada Boleslav

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

České Budějovice+0.00on par

Mlada Boleslav+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice ↓

Mlada Boleslav →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

České Budějovice or draw

63%

České Budějovice or Mlada Boleslav

75%

Draw or Mlada Boleslav

62%

Winning margin

České Budějovice wins by 2+

18%

Mlada Boleslav wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

České Budějovice 1+ goals

76%

České Budějovice 2+ goals

41%

České Budějovice 3+ goals

17%

Mlada Boleslav 1+ goals

75%

Mlada Boleslav 2+ goals

40%

Mlada Boleslav 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice (draw refunded)

51%

Mlada Boleslav (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 100 matches

Mlada Boleslav away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice attack 1.20 + Mlada Boleslav defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.41

Mlada Boleslav attack 1.23 + České Budějovice defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

České Budějovice scores more

38%

level

25%

Mlada Boleslav scores more

37%

České Budějovice at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "České Budějovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff