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České Budějovice vs Karviná — Czech Liga 2019

České Budějovice
České Budějovice
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Karviná
Karviná
3/16/2025Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 26Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

České Budějovice43%
×Draw25%
Karviná32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

České Budějovice
1.52
Karviná
1.27

České Budějovice creates 20% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 103 away

creates per match

České Budějovice
1.20
Karviná
1.00

allows per match

České Budějovice
1.53
Karviná
1.85

finishing

České Budějovice+0.00on par
Karviná+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice ↓

Karviná →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

České Budějovice or draw
68%
České Budějovice or Karviná
75%
Draw or Karviná
57%

Winning margin

České Budějovice wins by 2+
21%
Karviná wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

České Budějovice 1+ goals
78%
České Budějovice 2+ goals
45%
České Budějovice 3+ goals
20%
Karviná 1+ goals
72%
Karviná 2+ goals
36%
Karviná 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice (draw refunded)
58%
Karviná (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 100 matches

Karviná away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.85 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice attack 1.20 + Karviná defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.52

Karviná attack 1.00 + České Budějovice defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

České Budějovice scores more
43%
level
25%
Karviná scores more
32%

České Budějovice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "České Budějovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: České Budějovice 2–3 Karviná

Karviná beat České Budějovice 3-2 in Czech Liga on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Ceské Budejovice.