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České Budějovice vs Artis — FNL 2019

České Budějovice
České Budějovice
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Artis
Artis
9/27/2025FNLFNL · Round 11Strelecky ostrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

České Budějovice36%
×Draw28%
Artis36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

České Budějovice
1.20
Artis
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 103 away

creates per match

České Budějovice
1.19
Artis
1.28

allows per match

České Budějovice
1.13
Artis
1.21

finishing

České Budějovice+0.00on par
Artis+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice ↓

Artis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

České Budějovice or draw
64%
České Budějovice or Artis
72%
Draw or Artis
64%

Winning margin

České Budějovice wins by 2+
15%
Artis wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

České Budějovice 1+ goals
70%
České Budějovice 2+ goals
34%
České Budějovice 3+ goals
12%
Artis 1+ goals
70%
Artis 2+ goals
34%
Artis 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice (draw refunded)
50%
Artis (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Artis away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.21 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice attack 1.19 + Artis defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.20

Artis attack 1.28 + České Budějovice defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

České Budějovice scores more
36%
level
28%
Artis scores more
36%

České Budějovice at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "České Budějovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: České Budějovice vs Artis

Artis beat České Budějovice 2-0 in FNL on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Strelecky ostrov in Ceske Budejovice.