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Cesena vs Vicenza Virtus — Serie B 2018

Cesena
Cesena
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Vicenza Virtus
Vicenza Virtus
C. Ciano 6'
F. Orlando 45'
3/4/2017Serie BSerie B · Round 29Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Cesena45%
×Draw25%
Vicenza Virtus29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesena
1.52
Vicenza Virtus
1.17

Cesena creates 30% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 43 away

creates per match

Cesena
1.44
Vicenza Virtus
1.02

allows per match

Cesena
1.31
Vicenza Virtus
1.60

finishing

Cesena+0.00on par
Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Vicenza Virtus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cesena or draw
71%
Cesena or Vicenza Virtus
75%
Draw or Vicenza Virtus
55%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+
23%
Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals
78%
Cesena 2+ goals
45%
Cesena 3+ goals
20%
Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals
69%
Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals
33%
Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)
61%
Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 39 matches

Vicenza Virtus away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.44 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.02 + Cesena defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cesena scores more
45%
level
25%
Vicenza Virtus scores more
29%

Cesena at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
C. Ciano
34'
Camillo Ciano
42'
Francesco Urso
45'
Giuseppe De Luca
45'
F. Orlando
46'
M. Amelia← F. Benussi
60'
K. Laribi← N. Di Roberto
70'
S. Giacomelli← N. Bellomo
76'
G. Rizzo← F. Orlando
77'
Alejandro Rodriguez← A. Cocco
78'
Cristian Zaccardo
83'
G. Panico← M. Crimi

Possession

55%Cesena

Shots

11Cesena

Statistics

CesenaVicenza
Overview
55%Possession45%
11Total Shots2
3Corners5
26Fouls21
Shots
11Total Shots2
6On Target2
5Off Target0
Passing
55%Possession45%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
26Fouls21
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
2Offsides3

Serie B: Cesena 1–1 Vicenza Virtus

Cesena and Vicenza Virtus drew 1-1 in Serie B on March 4, 2017.

Goals: C. Ciano (6'), F. Orlando (45').

Cesena controlled possession (55%) and registered 11 shots to 2.

The match was played at Dino Manuzzi in Cesena.