Cesena U19 1–0 Salernitana U19: Result & Stats

Cesena U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Salernitana U19

11/25/2023

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 9Centro Sportivo Alberto Rognoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cesena U1976%

×Draw14%

Salernitana U1910%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cesena U19Expected goals in this matchSalernitana U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.91

1.00

Cesena U19

2.91

Salernitana U19

1.00

Cesena U19 creates 191% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 84 away

3.63

creates per match

1.10

0.89

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Cesena U19

3.63

Salernitana U19

1.10

allows per match

Cesena U19

0.89

Salernitana U19

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cesena U19+0.00on par

Salernitana U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena U19 ↓

Salernitana U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Cesena U19 or draw

90%

Cesena U19 or Salernitana U19

86%

Draw or Salernitana U19

24%

Winning margin

Cesena U19 wins by 2+

55%

Salernitana U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Cesena U19 1+ goals

94%

Cesena U19 2+ goals

78%

Cesena U19 3+ goals

54%

Salernitana U19 1+ goals

63%

Salernitana U19 2+ goals

26%

Salernitana U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cesena U19 (draw refunded)

88%

Salernitana U19 (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena U19 at home — creates 3.63, concedes 0.89 · 27 matches

Salernitana U19 away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.18 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena U19 attack 3.63 + Salernitana U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.91

Salernitana U19 attack 1.10 + Cesena U19 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Cesena U19 scores more

76%

level

14%

Salernitana U19 scores more

10%

Cesena U19 at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Cesena U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff