Cesena U19 3–0 Reggina U19: Result & Stats

Cesena U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Reggina U19

4/23/2022

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 26Centro Sportivo Alberto Rognoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cesena U1977%

×Draw14%

Reggina U1910%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cesena U19Expected goals in this matchReggina U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

1.01

Cesena U19

3.00

Reggina U19

1.01

Cesena U19 creates 197% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 39 away

3.63

creates per match

1.13

0.89

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Cesena U19

3.63

Reggina U19

1.13

allows per match

Cesena U19

0.89

Reggina U19

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cesena U19+0.00on par

Reggina U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena U19 ↓

Reggina U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Cesena U19 or draw

90%

Cesena U19 or Reggina U19

86%

Draw or Reggina U19

23%

Winning margin

Cesena U19 wins by 2+

57%

Reggina U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Cesena U19 1+ goals

95%

Cesena U19 2+ goals

79%

Cesena U19 3+ goals

56%

Reggina U19 1+ goals

64%

Reggina U19 2+ goals

27%

Reggina U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cesena U19 (draw refunded)

89%

Reggina U19 (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena U19 at home — creates 3.63, concedes 0.89 · 27 matches

Reggina U19 away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.36 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena U19 attack 3.63 + Reggina U19 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 3.00

Reggina U19 attack 1.13 + Cesena U19 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Cesena U19 scores more

77%

level

14%

Reggina U19 scores more

10%

Cesena U19 at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Cesena U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff