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Cesena U19 vs Monopoli U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Cesena U19
Cesena U19
FT
8 – 0
Monopoli U19
Monopoli U19
Coveri 52' (pen), 48' (pen), 39'
Manetti 26'
Ghinelli 14'
Domeniconi 9'
Ronchetti 6'
11/4/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 7Centro Sportivo Alberto Rognoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cesena U1975%
×Draw14%
Monopoli U1910%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesena U19
2.89
Monopoli U19
1.00

Cesena U19 creates 189% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 61 away

creates per match

Cesena U19
3.63
Monopoli U19
1.11

allows per match

Cesena U19
0.89
Monopoli U19
2.15

finishing

Cesena U19+0.00on par
Monopoli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena U19 ↓

Monopoli U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Cesena U19 or draw
90%
Cesena U19 or Monopoli U19
86%
Draw or Monopoli U19
25%

Winning margin

Cesena U19 wins by 2+
55%
Monopoli U19 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Cesena U19 1+ goals
94%
Cesena U19 2+ goals
78%
Cesena U19 3+ goals
54%
Monopoli U19 1+ goals
63%
Monopoli U19 2+ goals
26%
Monopoli U19 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cesena U19 (draw refunded)
88%
Monopoli U19 (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena U19 at home — creates 3.63, concedes 0.89 · 27 matches

Monopoli U19 away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.15 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena U19 attack 3.63 + Monopoli U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.89

Monopoli U19 attack 1.11 + Cesena U19 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Cesena U19 scores more
75%
level
14%
Monopoli U19 scores more
10%

Cesena U19 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Cesena U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
Ronchetti
9'
Domeniconi
14'
Ghinelli
26'
Manetti
39'
Coveri
48'
CoveriPenalty
52'
CoveriPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cesena U19 8 – 0 Monopoli U19

Cesena U19 beat Monopoli U19 8-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on November 4, 2023.

Goals: Ronchetti (6'), Domeniconi (9'), Ghinelli (14'), Manetti (26'), Coveri (39', 48' pen, 52' pen).

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Alberto Rognoni in Villa Silvia di Lizzano.