Cesena U19 1–2 Juventus U19: Result & Stats

Cesena U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Juventus U19

10/29/2022

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 10Centro Sportivo Romagna Centro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cesena U1928%

×Draw25%

Juventus U1947%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cesena U19Expected goals in this matchJuventus U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.54

Cesena U19

1.13

Juventus U19

1.54

Juventus U19 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

0.71

creates per match

1.38

1.71

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Cesena U19

0.71

Juventus U19

1.38

allows per match

Cesena U19

1.71

Juventus U19

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cesena U19+0.00on par

Juventus U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena U19 ↓

Juventus U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cesena U19 or draw

53%

Cesena U19 or Juventus U19

75%

Draw or Juventus U19

72%

Winning margin

Cesena U19 wins by 2+

11%

Juventus U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Cesena U19 1+ goals

68%

Cesena U19 2+ goals

31%

Cesena U19 3+ goals

11%

Juventus U19 1+ goals

79%

Juventus U19 2+ goals

45%

Juventus U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Cesena U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Juventus U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena U19 at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Juventus U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.55 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena U19 attack 0.71 + Juventus U19 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.13

Juventus U19 attack 1.38 + Cesena U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cesena U19 scores more

28%

level

25%

Juventus U19 scores more

47%

Juventus U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Juventus U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff