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Cesena U19 vs Internazionale U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Cesena U19
Cesena U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Internazionale U19
Internazionale U19
1/29/2023Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 16Centro Sportivo Romagna Centro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cesena U1921%
×Draw25%
Internazionale U1954%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesena U19
0.92
Internazionale U19
1.64

Internazionale U19 creates 78% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 66 away

creates per match

Cesena U19
0.71
Internazionale U19
1.56

allows per match

Cesena U19
1.71
Internazionale U19
1.12

finishing

Cesena U19+0.00on par
Internazionale U19+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena U19 ↓

Internazionale U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cesena U19 or draw
46%
Cesena U19 or Internazionale U19
75%
Draw or Internazionale U19
79%

Winning margin

Cesena U19 wins by 2+
7%
Internazionale U19 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Cesena U19 1+ goals
60%
Cesena U19 2+ goals
23%
Cesena U19 3+ goals
7%
Internazionale U19 1+ goals
81%
Internazionale U19 2+ goals
49%
Internazionale U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Cesena U19 (draw refunded)
28%
Internazionale U19 (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena U19 at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Internazionale U19 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.12 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena U19 attack 0.71 + Internazionale U19 defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.92

Internazionale U19 attack 1.56 + Cesena U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cesena U19 scores more
21%
level
25%
Internazionale U19 scores more
54%

Internazionale U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Internazionale U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cesena U19 vs Internazionale U19

Cesena U19 and Internazionale U19 drew 1-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Romagna Centro in Martorano di Cesena.