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Cesena U19 vs Benevento U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Cesena U19
Cesena U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Benevento U19
Benevento U19
4/6/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 25Centro Sportivo Alberto Rognoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cesena U1970%
×Draw16%
Benevento U1913%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesena U19
2.62
Benevento U19
1.06

Cesena U19 creates 147% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 84 away

creates per match

Cesena U19
3.63
Benevento U19
1.24

allows per match

Cesena U19
0.89
Benevento U19
1.61

finishing

Cesena U19+0.00on par
Benevento U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena U19 ↓

Benevento U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Cesena U19 or draw
87%
Cesena U19 or Benevento U19
84%
Draw or Benevento U19
30%

Winning margin

Cesena U19 wins by 2+
49%
Benevento U19 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cesena U19 1+ goals
93%
Cesena U19 2+ goals
73%
Cesena U19 3+ goals
48%
Benevento U19 1+ goals
65%
Benevento U19 2+ goals
29%
Benevento U19 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cesena U19 (draw refunded)
84%
Benevento U19 (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena U19 at home — creates 3.63, concedes 0.89 · 27 matches

Benevento U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.61 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena U19 attack 3.63 + Benevento U19 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.62

Benevento U19 attack 1.24 + Cesena U19 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Cesena U19 scores more
70%
level
16%
Benevento U19 scores more
13%

Cesena U19 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Cesena U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Cesena U19 2–0 Benevento U19

Cesena U19 beat Benevento U19 2-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Alberto Rognoni in Villa Silvia di Lizzano.