Cesar Vallejo 2–0 Sport Boys: Result & Stats

Cesar Vallejo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sport Boys

5/7/2023

Primera División · Apertura - 15Estadio Mansiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Cesar Vallejo56%

×Draw24%

Sport Boys20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cesar VallejoExpected goals in this matchSport Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.87

Cesar Vallejo

1.66

Sport Boys

0.87

Cesar Vallejo creates 91% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 145 away

1.54

creates per match

0.86

0.88

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Cesar Vallejo

1.54

Sport Boys

0.86

allows per match

Cesar Vallejo

0.88

Sport Boys

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par

Sport Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesar Vallejo ↓

Sport Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cesar Vallejo or draw

80%

Cesar Vallejo or Sport Boys

76%

Draw or Sport Boys

44%

Winning margin

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+

31%

Sport Boys wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals

81%

Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals

49%

Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals

23%

Sport Boys 1+ goals

58%

Sport Boys 2+ goals

22%

Sport Boys 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)

74%

Sport Boys (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesar Vallejo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.88 · 96 matches

Sport Boys away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.77 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.54 + Sport Boys defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.66

Sport Boys attack 0.86 + Cesar Vallejo defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cesar Vallejo scores more

56%

level

24%

Sport Boys scores more

20%

Cesar Vallejo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cesar Vallejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff