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Cesar Vallejo vs Alfredo Salinas — Segunda División 2018

Cesar Vallejo
Cesar Vallejo
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Alfredo Salinas
Alfredo Salinas
9/23/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 26Estadio Municipal de Casa Grande (Casagrande)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Cesar Vallejo74%
×Draw17%
Alfredo Salinas9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesar Vallejo
2.23
Alfredo Salinas
0.60

Cesar Vallejo creates 272% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 14 away

creates per match

Cesar Vallejo
1.74
Alfredo Salinas
0.43

allows per match

Cesar Vallejo
0.77
Alfredo Salinas
2.71

finishing

Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par
Alfredo Salinas+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesar Vallejo ↓

Alfredo Salinas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cesar Vallejo or draw
91%
Cesar Vallejo or Alfredo Salinas
83%
Draw or Alfredo Salinas
26%

Winning margin

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+
50%
Alfredo Salinas wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals
89%
Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals
65%
Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals
38%
Alfredo Salinas 1+ goals
45%
Alfredo Salinas 2+ goals
12%
Alfredo Salinas 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)
90%
Alfredo Salinas (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesar Vallejo at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.77 · 31 matches

Alfredo Salinas away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.74 + Alfredo Salinas defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.23

Alfredo Salinas attack 0.43 + Cesar Vallejo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Cesar Vallejo scores more
74%
level
17%
Alfredo Salinas scores more
9%

Cesar Vallejo at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Cesar Vallejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Cesar Vallejo 5–0 Alfredo Salinas

Cesar Vallejo beat Alfredo Salinas 5-0 in Segunda División on September 23, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Casa Grande (Casagrande).