Cerro 3–0 Rampla Juniors: Result & Stats

Cerro

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Rampla Juniors

J. Berríos 17'

M. Abero 15'

I. Pereira 4'

4/7/2024

Primera División - Apertura · Apertura - 7Estadio Monumental Luis Tróccoli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Cerro51%

×Draw26%

Rampla Juniors23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CerroExpected goals in this matchRampla Juniors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.93

Cerro

1.54

Rampla Juniors

0.93

Cerro creates 66% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 33 away

1.06

creates per match

1.00

0.86

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Cerro

1.06

Rampla Juniors

1.00

allows per match

Cerro

0.86

Rampla Juniors

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cerro+0.00on par

Rampla Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerro ↓

Rampla Juniors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cerro or draw

77%

Cerro or Rampla Juniors

74%

Draw or Rampla Juniors

49%

Winning margin

Cerro wins by 2+

27%

Rampla Juniors wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cerro 1+ goals

79%

Cerro 2+ goals

45%

Cerro 3+ goals

20%

Rampla Juniors 1+ goals

61%

Rampla Juniors 2+ goals

24%

Rampla Juniors 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cerro (draw refunded)

69%

Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerro at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.86 · 65 matches

Rampla Juniors away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.03 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerro attack 1.06 + Rampla Juniors defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.54

Rampla Juniors attack 1.00 + Cerro defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cerro scores more

51%

level

26%

Rampla Juniors scores more

23%

Cerro at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cerro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

15'

17'

23'

46'

F. Ospitaleche← T. Adoryán

46'

46'

57'

65'

67'

M. Peralta← S. Ramírez

67'

A. Leites← N. Dibble

68'

E. Almeida← M. Añasco

69'

Andrés Madruga

70'

Adrián Leites

77'

B. Scorza← I. Pereira

77'

77'

82'

86'

90+3'

90'

90+3'

Cerro3-4-3

Rampla4-4-2

19

▼

Burruzo

7

Barreto

23

▼

Añasco

20

Tamareo

18

▼

Adoryán

22

▼

Dibble

33

Camargo

2

▼

30

17

1

1

16

⚽

Abero

13

Lacoste

21

Gorgoroso

10

▼

Ramírez

20

Rabuñal

5

Macelli

4

▼

Álvarez

15

⚽

▼

Pereira

9

▼

González

14

⚽

▼

Berríos

Manager: I. Pallas

67'▲M. Peralta←▼S. Ramírez

77'▲B. Scorza←▼I. Pereira

77'▲E. Femia←▼E. Álvarez

77'▲E. Melo←▼N. González

86'▲R. Marín←▼J. Berríos

Cerro substitutes

7Peralta18Scorza17Femia19Melo6Marín8Petillo11Rodríguez12Cubero2Umpiérrez3Rodríguez

Manager: J. Castillo

46'▲F. Ospitaleche←▼T. Adoryán

46'▲N. Royón←▼M. Burruzo

46'▲S. Gorga←▼J. Toledo

67'▲A. Leites←▼N. Dibble

68'▲E. Almeida←▼M. Añasco

Rampla Juniors substitutes

6Ospitaleche11Royón24Gorga21Leites16Almeida3Centurión10Machado12Samurio14Rosa5Méndez

Match Recap: Cerro vs Rampla Juniors

Cerro beat Rampla Juniors 3-0 in Primera División - Apertura on April 7, 2024.

Goals: I. Pereira (4'), M. Abero (15'), J. Berríos (17').

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Luis Tróccoli in Montevideo.

Cerro vs Rampla Juniors — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cerro vs Rampla Juniors