Cerro 2–3 Progreso: Result & Stats

Cerro

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Progreso

3/1/2024

Primera División - Apertura · Apertura - 3Estadio Monumental Luis Tróccoli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Cerro44%

×Draw27%

Progreso29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CerroExpected goals in this matchProgreso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.06

Cerro

1.36

Progreso

1.06

Cerro creates 28% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 62 away

1.06

creates per match

1.21

0.92

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Cerro

1.06

Progreso

1.21

allows per match

Cerro

0.92

Progreso

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cerro+0.00on par

Progreso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerro ↓

Progreso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cerro or draw

71%

Cerro or Progreso

73%

Draw or Progreso

56%

Winning margin

Cerro wins by 2+

20%

Progreso wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cerro 1+ goals

74%

Cerro 2+ goals

39%

Cerro 3+ goals

16%

Progreso 1+ goals

65%

Progreso 2+ goals

29%

Progreso 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cerro (draw refunded)

60%

Progreso (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerro at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.92 · 64 matches

Progreso away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.66 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerro attack 1.06 + Progreso defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.36

Progreso attack 1.21 + Cerro defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cerro scores more

44%

level

27%

Progreso scores more

29%

Cerro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cerro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff